Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.095326 2.217129 2.345301 2.490746 2.651852 2.825584 3.028101
2025-04-27 1.945149 2.117435 2.307733 2.535461 2.803219 3.111490 3.498446
2025-05-04 1.846721 2.050567 2.283627 2.573676 2.930689 3.363873 3.942746
2025-05-11 1.744211 1.964569 2.222917 2.553997 2.976149 3.510284 4.262272
2025-05-18 1.663010 1.895144 2.173020 2.538055 3.017939 3.648227 4.579463
2025-05-25 1.592243 1.832297 2.124727 2.517118 3.046926 3.766500 4.878394
2025-06-01 1.530367 1.775958 2.079708 2.494971 3.069255 3.873597 5.170420
2025-06-08 1.485895 1.738454 2.055482 2.496979 3.122441 4.026650 5.551829
2025-06-15 1.455155 1.716337 2.049085 2.521245 3.207016 4.232173 6.048975
2025-06-22 1.404031 1.665186 2.001292 2.484446 3.198573 4.292077 6.302188
2025-06-29 1.355935 1.615894 1.953444 2.444273 3.181193 4.334521 6.528174
2025-07-06 1.306367 1.562748 1.898006 2.389992 3.138048 4.329933 6.662625
2025-07-13 1.286182 1.548482 1.895595 2.413017 3.217132 4.539300 7.264365
2025-07-20 1.273159 1.543162 1.905004 2.453504 3.326435 4.812981 8.066248
2025-07-27 1.259512 1.536241 1.911509 2.489489 3.430697 5.090080 8.953739
2025-08-03 1.229727 1.505965 1.883433 2.470851 3.442009 5.194617 9.455808
2025-08-10 1.202851 1.478788 1.858637 2.455760 3.457804 5.308941 10.015696
2025-08-17 1.176136 1.450966 1.831798 2.435938 3.463617 5.403618 10.551455
2025-08-24 1.150555 1.423957 1.805132 2.414965 3.465660 5.490477 11.093761
2025-08-31 1.132807 1.407452 1.793224 2.416866 3.508500 5.667638 11.978874
2025-09-07 1.121766 1.400080 1.794435 2.439846 3.591196 5.941957 13.310777
2025-09-14 1.095732 1.370502 1.761439 2.404994 3.563482 5.965624 13.765806
2025-09-21 1.069981 1.340738 1.727327 2.366926 3.527372 5.966332 14.140539